A country needs more than a flag, internationally recognized borders, and sympathetic speeches from foreign leaders. It needs people who can afford to live there, raise children, build businesses, and pass something on to the next generation.

Weakening Russia may serve the interests of Ukraine’s partners. But weakening Russia and securing a viable future for Ukraine are not necessarily the same thing. At some point, we need to stop treating them as though they are.

Demographics

Ukraine’s demographic history did not begin in 1991, and Ukrainians did not exist only within Ukraine’s present borders.

The numbers need some care: counting ethnic Ukrainians is not the same as counting everyone living in Ukraine. Additionally, the sources and the differences in methodologies may impact the accuracy of these estimates, but you’ll at least get the big picture - the Ukrainian population was increasing throughout history quite steadily.

With that in mind, consider this:

• 1550–1650: Historical estimates put the Ukrainian population at approximately 4.9 million in 1550, rising to 5.3 million in 1650. These are reconstructions, not modern census counts.

• 1795: Approximately 8.2 million Ukrainians within the Russian Empire, excluding those living beyond its borders.

• 1834: Approximately 11 million Ukrainians.

• 1858: Approximately 13 million Ukrainians.

• 1897: Approximately 22.4 million Ukrainians.

• 1926: Approximately 31.2 million Ukrainians across the USSR, including those living outside the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.

• 1932–1934: Reconstructed estimates put the population of Soviet Ukraine at 31.4 million at the beginning of 1932, falling to 27.8 million at the beginning of 1934. These figures count all residents within the republic’s borders at that time.

• 1959: Approximately 41.9 million residents in Ukraine, with another 5.1 million ethnic Ukrainians living elsewhere in the USSR.

• 1970: Approximately 47.1 million residents in Ukraine, with another 5.5 million ethnic Ukrainians elsewhere in the USSR.

• 1979: Approximately 49.8 million residents in Ukraine, with another 5.9 million ethnic Ukrainians elsewhere in the USSR.

• 1989: Approximately 51.7 million residents in Ukraine, with another 6.8 million ethnic Ukrainians elsewhere in the USSR, before even considering the diaspora beyond Soviet borders.

In 1991, Ukraine inherited a population of nearly 52 million people. Since that time it came down to between 42 and 44 million people prior to 2022, but went steadily downhill from there with present estimates ranging anywhere between 22 and 29 million people living on the territories controlled the Ukrainian government.

The figure below illustrates this demographic trend, but the problem is that the last official census was done in 2001, so everything after that are educated guesses. As stated above, modern estimates are actually much lower than what is shown here.

Source: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/war-exacerbates-ukraines-population-decline-new-report-shows-2023-03-08_en

Gloomy picture, isn’t it?

None of this means there were no natural or man-made population declines. But neither was this a history of uninterrupted demographic decline. It was not all dark and gloomy, however convenient that interpretation might be for today’s arguments.

War has added displacement on an enormous scale. By February 2026, UNHCR reported approximately 5.9 million refugees from Ukraine abroad, alongside approximately 3.7 million internally displaced people.

Those who left have not stopped being Ukrainian. But retaining an identity abroad and sustaining a country at home are different things.

Children settle into schools. Parents find work. Families learn another language and establish another life. At some point, returning to Ukraine may mean uprooting themselves all over again.

And what about their children? Or the children those children will eventually have?

The longer this continues, the more Ukraine risks losing not only its present population, but future generations who might otherwise have lived there. A nation can maintain a large diaspora and still struggle to maintain the country from which that diaspora came.

Economy

The financial picture is hardly more reassuring.

The Kyiv Independent looked into Ukraine’s growing debt and reported that public and publicly guaranteed debt had exceeded US$213 billion by the end of 2025. Much of the increase came from borrowing from official foreign creditors.1

Not every dollar carries the same repayment burden. Some loans have exceptionally favourable terms. The G7’s ERA loans are intended to be serviced from earnings on immobilized Russian assets, while repayment of the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan is tied to Russia paying reparations, the possibility of which is questionable at best.

Ukraine spent approximately US$6.8 billion on interest in 2024 alone, equivalent to roughly 4 percent of GDP. That is interest, not repayments of principal. The problem is that Ukraine must carry its interest bill while also financing a war and rebuilding what is being destroyed.

Source: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2026/09/08/8052448/

A joint assessment by the Ukrainian government, World Bank, European Commission, and United Nations put direct damage through the end of 2025 at more than US$195 billion, with almost US$588 billion needed for recovery and reconstruction over the following decade. Those reconstruction needs are not existing government debt, but someone will still have to pay for them.

Replacing a destroyed power station or repairing a bridge does not necessarily make the country richer than it was before. It merely restores something the country already had.

Meanwhile, people who could help rebuild Ukraine are contributing to other economies.

A Deloitte study published with UNHCR estimated that Ukrainian refugees’ presence had a positive net effect equivalent to 2.7 percent of Poland’s GDP in 2024. The Polish Economic Institute also found that Ukrainians established approximately 77,700 sole proprietorships and 11,300 companies with Ukrainian capital in Poland during 2022–2024.

These are not all companies that physically relocated from Ukraine. Many are new businesses. But that is precisely the point: Ukrainians are building new economic lives elsewhere.

There is nothing wrong with families supporting themselves or entrepreneurs taking opportunities. The question is what Ukraine will have to offer to bring that activity home.

Then there is the sale of state assets.

In August 2026, the Kyiv Independent reported that Ukraine was seeking foreign investors for privatization auctions, while domestic buyers are far and few between.2

One example was the Odesa Portside Plant. Its planned auction starting price was approximately US$100 million, a mere one-fifth of its 2009 auction price. The State Property Fund’s leadership acknowledged that assets were being offered at discounted prices, while arguing that strategic investors would bring long-term commitments.

Perhaps they will. But selling under pressure is not the same as selling from a position of strength.

An investor who can afford to wait for peace may eventually acquire something very valuable. A government that needs money now has considerably less room to wait. Ukrainians are entitled to ask whether they will receive a fair share of the eventual recovery.

Agricultural land raises a similar concern.

The legal framework opening Ukraine’s land market reserved foreign access for a national referendum. Meanwhile, discussions have continued: a June 2026 event summarized by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) considered opening the market to EU citizens and companies, alongside concerns about ownership concentration and access for Ukrainian farmers.

However, a referendum cannot equalize purchasing power. Should access expand, a Ukrainian farmer trying to recover from years of war could find themselves competing with a foreign investor able to borrow more cheaply and wait much longer for a return. Promises of affordable loans for Ukrainians are only useful if Ukrainians can actually obtain them.

The same KSE discussion highlighted practical difficulties with agricultural financing, including administrative costs and limited uptake of credit guarantees. A programme existing on paper is not the same as a farmer having money in the bank.

And while all this is happening, financial support comes with conditions.

Reuters reported on March 18, 2026, that Ukraine had received US$1.5 billion under a new US$8.1 billion IMF programme, with further disbursements dependent on conditions. Proposed tax changes were expected to affect approximately 250,000 entrepreneurs, alongside measures involving digital platforms and VAT exemptions. Reuters also reported that IMF support was important for unlocking EU funding.3

Those were proposals, not a claim that every measure had already become law. But the relationship is clear enough: the country needs money, and its lenders want changes before providing more. In the end, ordinary Ukrainians will have to absorb the cost of borrowing.

How much practical freedom does a government have to say no when it needs the next payment to keep functioning? And how much more can its businesses carry before the people running them decide that starting over somewhere else is the better option?

What is ‘Victory’?

I’ve had countless discussions since 2022 about this, and the typical response is “restoring Ukraine to its 1991 borders.”

It might be hard to admit, but I am not convinced that repeating this objective makes it an achievable plan. Where is the explanation of how it happens, how long it takes, and what Ukraine will have left when it does?

So, what is this elusive “victory” that Ukraine is fighting towards?

In my humble opinion, preserving Ukrainian people, language, and culture should be the goal. It is ensuring there are more generations of Ukrainians to come—and that they have a country where they can realistically build their lives.

Land, economic unions, or military alliances do not constitute a nation. It is the people who live and breathe everything it is to be Ukrainian. Those other things matter because they are supposed to serve the people, not the other way around.

A nation is not built just on the basis of being “the opposite” of any one of its neighbours. That is not sustainable.

Unfortunately, this does not seem to be the definition of victory most are willing to accept. Yet.

The strategic interest of Ukraine’s partners is hardly a secret. In April 2022, then-US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, under President Biden, identified weakening Russia’s military capacity as an American objective, alongside preserving a sovereign Ukraine. He specifically spoke about preventing Russia from rapidly rebuilding the capabilities it was losing.4

That may be a sensible objective from Washington’s perspective. But Ukrainians are entitled to ask how much of their own future should be spent achieving it.

Is it a mutually beneficial deal? That depends on what Ukraine receives in the end—not merely on how much Russia loses.

Ukraine cannot build its strategy on the assumption that its supporters will eventually fight the war for it. Nor should expressions of gratitude prevent Ukrainians from questioning the costs of the course they are being encouraged to follow.

The United States is across the Atlantic - 9,158 kilometers (5,690 miles) away. The UK is about 2,477 kilometers (1,539 miles) away. France is about 2,190 kilometers (1,360 miles) away from Ukraine. Germany is about 1,519 kilometers (944 miles) away. Russia and Belarus are just next door.

In an ideal world, Ukraine is at peace with Russia and can maintain workable relations with both Russia and Belarus. Neutrality may be one option worth negotiating. Whether it would work depends on the terms and whether those terms can be upheld—not on whether the word itself is considered acceptable.

Negotiation does not have to mean friendship. Nor does accepting that some disputes may remain unresolved mean abandoning Ukraine’s identity.

At what point does another year of fighting cost Ukraine more than it is likely to gain?

Ukraine’s Relationship with Russia

I hate to break it to you, but for many Ukrainians, the cultural, linguistic, and family connections with Russia run much deeper than those with an Englishman, Frenchman, or German.

That is not an argument against Ukrainian independence. It is an argument against pretending that the relationship began in 2022.

It has been turbulent. There have been grievances, insults, and competing interpretations of history. But that does not mean the relationship between ordinary people was always hostile.

As recently as February 2014, a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology survey found that 68 percent of Ukrainians wanted Ukraine and Russia to remain independent but friendly countries, with open borders and no visas or customs barriers. Only 12 percent supported unification into one state. Wanting a constructive relationship with Russia was not the same as wanting Ukraine to disappear into it.

You do not get to choose your neighbours. You do get to decide whether permanent hostility is the only future you are prepared to imagine.

In the end, unfortunately, this is a war between two Slavic, Eastern Orthodox Christian nations.

The second President of Ukraine, Leonid Kuchma, laid out what I think is a useful foundation for this discussion in his 2003 book, Ukraine Is Not Russia. He tried to explain and strengthen Ukrainian identity without making hostility towards Russia its defining purpose.

Kuchma rejected the interpretation of Ukraine as simply a Russian colony. Instead, he described it as an integral part of metropolitan Russia, with the advantages and disadvantages that came with that position. This was his interpretation of a complicated relationship, not a claim that the relationship had been free of pressure or conflict.

Indeed, he also criticized Moscow’s suppression of Ukrainian national self-consciousness. But recognizing that pressure did not lead him to dismiss the entire shared past or the possibility of a different relationship in the future.

Ukrainians do not need to deny everything positive about their history with Russians to justify having a country of their own. Nor does acknowledging common ground mean accepting that Ukraine is not a separate nation.

The demographic history alone should make us hesitate before describing the imperial and Soviet periods as nothing but uninterrupted national decline. The picture was more complicated. It should be possible to say that without being accused of wanting to turn the clock back.

Kuchma’s starting point was a Ukraine that knew what it was, rather than one that needed Russia to remain its permanent opposite. I think that is a stronger foundation for national identity than defining every cultural or political choice through rejection.

None of this makes reconciliation easy. For people who have lost their homes or family members, it may feel impossible. But an eventual relationship between the two countries cannot depend on forgiveness. True statesmen must look beyond that.

At what point does the damage and burden of this war become too heavy for Ukraine to carry, given that its supporters are not eagerly lining up to fight in the trenches?

While it may be difficult to accept, Ukraine may eventually need to negotiate not only an end to the fighting, but a workable relationship with its largest neighbour. Its partners should also be expected to help create a financial settlement that leaves Ukraine able to recover.

The bills will not disappear the day an agreement is signed, because that can only happen if Russia wins. Neither will the need to persuade families to return, businesses to invest, and young people to have children.

In the grand scheme of things, it seems to me that the West has a clearer understanding of what it wants from this war. But is that vision aligned with the future of the Ukrainian nation?

Europe may gain from a weaker Russia. But a weaker Russia is not automatically a stronger Ukraine.

Ukraine is doing Europe a solid. The question is how much of Ukraine’s future it should have to spend doing it.

Several parts of Canada’s defence and advanced-technology agenda moved forward this week. Construction began on a major modernization program at CFB Gagetown, while the first intake of the Defence Drone Initiative drew more than 500 companies.

MDA Space launched a new investment program for Canadian space and defence firms, and Ottawa committed $195 million to expand Xanadu’s quantum manufacturing capacity.

Together, these announcements point to progress on both fronts: upgrading the infrastructure the military relies on and building more of the technologies Canada wants to develop domestically.

MAJOR MODERNIZATION BEGINS AT CFB GAGETOWN

Construction has started on the first phase of the $871 million Recapitalization Gagetown Range and Training Area project, one of the largest infrastructure investments in the history of 5th Canadian Division Support Base Gagetown.

The broader program will direct more than $1 billion into the New Brunswick base, with the immediate work focused on the facilities and training areas that underpin operational readiness: priority road upgrades, modernization of the anti-armour range, bridge design, new medical and administrative facilities at Camp Petersville, and restoration of the Austere Village training site.

Phase 2 is expected to begin in 2028.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

DEFENCE DRONE INITIATIVE DRAWS MORE THAN 500 COMPANIES

The first intake of Canada’s Defence Drone Initiative attracted 527 companies and more than 1,000 bids, according to figures provided by DND to Vanguard Defence.

The marketplace is designed to give Canadian suppliers a faster route into testing, prototype work, limited acquisitions, and potential production across uncrewed and counter-uncrewed systems.

Qualification does not guarantee a contract, but the scale of the response shows strong industry demand for a more direct path into defence procurement.

Read More: Vanguard Defence Release

MDA SPACE LAUNCHES INVESTMENT PROGRAM FOR CANADIAN DEFENCE AND SPACE FIRMS

MDA Space has launched LaunchPad Ventures, a new program that will invest in Canadian small and medium-sized businesses developing space and defence technologies.

The initiative identifies 25 investment areas aligned with Canadian strategic priorities and will also give selected companies access to MDA Space and 49North expertise, industry networks, and potential future program opportunities.

Read More: MDA Space Release

OTTAWA INVESTS $195 MILLION IN XANADU’S QUANTUM MANUFACTURING EXPANSION

The federal government is investing $195 million in Xanadu’s $893 million Project OPTIMISM to expand R&D and establish advanced quantum manufacturing capabilities in Canada.

The project will add facilities for integrating, packaging, testing, and assembling photonic and semiconductor components used in quantum systems, while creating an estimated 275 jobs.

Ottawa is linking the investment directly to the National Quantum Strategy and Defence Industrial Strategy, with potential applications spanning cybersecurity, defence, energy, and logistics.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

Procurement speed and the infrastructure behind military readiness were the strongest themes in this week’s defence coverage.

Canadian drone companies are watching whether Ottawa’s new marketplace can turn supplier qualification into faster orders, while major infrastructure programs continue across Arctic surveillance, air operations, naval facilities, and northern basing.

Inuvik remains a key dual-use project, and discussions at ADSE 2026 reinforced the pressure to better align procurement, industrial capacity, and operational requirements.

CANADIAN FIRMS LOOK TO OTTAWA’S DRONE MARKETPLACE FOR FASTER CONTRACTS

Canadian drone companies are testing whether the new Defence Drone Initiative Marketplace can shorten the path from technology development to defence orders.

The model creates a pool of pre-qualified Canadian suppliers that can compete for testing, prototypes, limited acquisitions, and potential production work across drones, counter-UAS, ground and maritime systems, payloads, and precision strike.

Industry response has been positive, but the real measure will be how quickly Ottawa moves from qualification to tenders and contracts.

Read More: Financial Post Release

CANADA’S DEFENCE INFRASTRUCTURE PIPELINE EXPANDS ALONGSIDE NEW CAPABILITIES

DND manages an infrastructure portfolio with an estimated $28 billion replacement value and an annual budget of about $3.1 billion. As new aircraft, ships, surveillance systems, and operational requirements enter service, the supporting infrastructure is becoming a major defence investment stream in its own right.

Major projects highlighted by Canadian Defence Review include:

• Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar: initial operating capability targeted for 2029.

• Strategic Tanker Transport Capability: new CC-330 infrastructure at CFB Trenton, with Edmonton planned as the western operating base and Inuvik supporting northern operations.

• Inuvik Airport: runway extension and supporting airfield upgrades for larger military aircraft.

• Land Based Test Facility, Halifax: a $241 million facility supporting integration and testing for the River-class destroyers.

• CFB Esquimalt A/B Jetty Recapitalization: B-Jetty has reached initial operating capability, with work shifting to A-Jetty.

• JTF 2 Infrastructure Project: up to 23 new buildings and recapitalized facilities at the Dwyer Hill Training Centre.

• National Defence Secure Campus: a planned integrated command, intelligence, communications, and targeting facility in Ottawa.

The scale of the pipeline reflects a basic requirement: major equipment programs cannot deliver readiness without the bases, hangars, jetties, training facilities, communications systems, and northern infrastructure needed to operate them.

Read More: Canadian Defence Review Release

INUVIK AIRPORT INVESTMENT BUILDS ARCTIC OPERATING CAPACITY

Ottawa is putting additional funding behind the modernization of Inuvik’s Mike Zubko Airport, a key civilian hub and Royal Canadian Air Force/NORAD Forward Operating Location.

Transport Canada announced up to $49.5 million for runway and access-road improvements, building on DND’s existing $230 million investment to extend the runway from 6,000 to 9,000 feet and modernize lighting, navigation, and military aircraft support systems. DND says the extension is well underway and is expected to be completed in 2027.

The project is significant for both defence and northern communities: the longer runway will accommodate larger aircraft and strengthen Arctic operations, while the broader upgrades improve cargo movement, emergency response, and regional connectivity.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

ADSE 2026 PUTS PROCUREMENT AGILITY AND INDUSTRIAL RESILIENCE IN FOCUS

ADSE 2026 brought government, military, and industry leaders together around a recurring issue: Canada needs to move more quickly from defence policy to operational capability. Discussions focused on RCAF and NORAD modernization, resilient supply chains, domestic industrial capacity, and closer coordination between government requirements and what Canadian industry can deliver.

The event also produced a concrete industrial example: Canada has agreed to sell 10 remaining RCAF CC-130H Hercules aircraft to Coulson Aviation, which plans to convert them into aerial firefighting platforms in British Columbia. The deal illustrates the wider ADSE theme — using Canadian aerospace expertise across defence, emergency response, and other dual-use requirements.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

It has been a great era of NATO expansion, which would obviously be a trigger for a country sitting on the other side of the fence.

When in doubt, ask yourself this: if Russia said it was looking to establish a permanent military presence in Canada, Mexico, or Greenland, would the NATO countries nearby sit idly and say, “Well, sovereign countries can choose their own alliances”?

Think about that for a second. I wouldn’t bet on the ‘sit idly’ part.

People Prefer to Follow Rules They Like

The so called ‘rules based’ world order is gone and it is not coming back. In fact, it is worth discussing that it might never have been a ‘rules based’ world order. People tend to defend their side against the other side. As is inherent to human beings, the world picks sides. When something is beneficial to Side A, they support it. When it is beneficial to Side B, they oppose it. Remember the bombing of Belgrade and what happened in Yugoslavia? Libya? The WMD debacle in Iraq?

I won’t delve too deeply into this debate, although it is certainly an interesting one. What I am trying to say is that the world is not black or white. It has many shades of grey.

The reason we should discuss these things with our eyes wide open and be prepared to play devil’s advocate is simple: without a thorough understanding of the interests and positions of each side, it is impossible to reach any sort of positive—or at the very least neutral—resolution to a conflict, be it hot or cold.

I digress.

Are We About to Find Out?

This brings me to the topic at hand: why, militarily speaking, it can make sense for Russia to attack—and why that window of opportunity is quite narrow.

Let’s assume that we fucked around at about the 7 level. Are we about to find out? What would that look like? Short of level 10, which is nuclear warfare, of course. Or at least I hope.

Before we jump in, I want to show you an old map called “Europe as viewed from the U.S.S.R.” it is as relevant now as it was in the past. On this map, I highlighted the following countries, following their current borders as closely as possible, but expect a few errors, as I was doing this manually:

• Green: Ukraine, but only the territories currently under Ukrainian control.

• Yellow: Belarus

• Blue: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland

• White: Poland

• Red: Russia

As you can see below, the Baltics are really between a rock and a hard place. Especially, if Belarus is involved.

The Principles of War

Before we discuss why I think it is highly likely that an attack might actually happen, we need to understand what typically drives strategic thinking in any war—hot or cold.

The ten Principles of War listed below have been adopted by the Canadian Chiefs of Staff Committee for the use and guidance of the Canadian Armed Forces. Feel free to do some research on this online; there are plenty of resources available.

Defining a principle as a guide to conduct, the following are the principles that must always influence commanders in war:

1. Selection and Maintenance of the Aim - In the conduct of war as a whole and in every operation of war it is essential to select and clearly define the aim. The ultimate aim is to break the enemy’s will to fight. All efforts must be directed to its attainment until a changed situation calls for a re-appreciation and consequently a new aim. This must be regarded as the “Master” Principle.

2. Maintenance of Morale - Success in war depends more on moral than on physical qualities. Numbers, armament and resources cannot compensate for lack of courage, energy, determination, skill and the bold offensive spirit which springs from a national determination to conquer. The development and subsequent maintenance of the qualities of morale are, therefore, essential to success in war.

3. Offensive Action - Offensive action is the necessary forerunner of victory; it may be delayed, but until the initiative is seized and the offensive taken victory is impossible.

4. Security - A sufficient degree of security is essential in order to obtain freedom of action to launch a bold offensive in pursuit of the selected aim. This entails adequate defence of vulnerable bases and other interests which are vital to the nation or the armed forces. Security does not imply undue caution and avoidance of all risks, for bold action is essential to success in war; on the contrary, with security provided for, unexpected developments are unlikely to interfere seriously with the pursuit of a vigorous offensive.

5. Surprise - The most effective and powerful influence in war, and its moral effect is very great. Every endeavour must be made to surprise the enemy and to guard against being surprised. By the use of surprise, results out of all proportion to the effort expended can be obtained, and in some operations, when other factors are unfavourable, surprise may be essential to success. Surprise can be achieved strategically, tactically or by exploiting new material. The elements of surprise are secrecy, concealment, deception, originality, audacity and rapidity.

6. Concentration of Force - To achieve success in war, it is essential to concentrate superior force, moral or material, to that of the enemy at the decisive time and place. Concentration does not necessarily imply a massing of forces, but rather having them so disposed as to be able to unite to deliver the decisive blow when and where required, or to counter the enemy’s threats.

7. Economy of Effort - This implies a balanced employment of forces, and a judicious expenditure of all resources with the object of achieving an effective concentration at the decisive time and place.

8. Flexibility - Modern war demands a high degree of flexibility to enable pre- arranged plans to be altered to meet changing situations and unexpected developments.

9. Co-operation - Based on team spirit and entails the co-ordination of all units so as to achieve the maximum combined effort from the whole.

10. Administration - The administrative arrangements must be designed to give the Commanders the maximum freedom of action in carrying out any plan.

With that out of the way, I hope you are still reading.

Fortunately, we won’t be able to cover all of these principles. Here are the ones I think are the most important for our analysis:

1. Offensive Action

2. Security

3. Surprise

4. Concentration of Force

5. Flexibility

The others are either self-explanatory or impossible for us to realistically evaluate in such a short amount of time.

What Does Russia Want?

While I won’t go in-depth into this Principle of War, it is the “Master” Principle, so we need to touch on it: Selection and Maintenance of Aim.

We can only guess what Russia’s aim is, but we can safely assume Russia has one. I’ll use Occam’s Razor here and say that, in this case, it might be counterproductive to come up with elaborate explanations. Therefore, let’s take Putin’s words for what they are:

They don’t want an opposing military alliance (i.e. NATO) on their border, especially when it involves countries with which they have historic ties. Some sort of buffer would certainly help defuse tensions between the two sides.

Keep that aim in mind throughout the rest of this article. I say again: they don’t want an opposing military alliance (i.e. NATO) on their border.

I was going to go over what has happened in Ukraine since 2013, but that will have to be another article. In short, just like 12 years ago, Russia probably has the same aim and wants to restore its sphere of influence. Nothing crazy here. Most people will probably acknowledge that Russia wants to maintain its influence and prevent countries on its border from joining NATO.

Now, if you’re on the Western side of the fence, you probably picked the side that wants to grow the influence of your side, so you view NATO expansion as democracy at work. After all, NATO is not invading anyone here, am I right? However, if this were the Warsaw Pact expanding westward, the roles would flip, and many of the same people who support NATO expansion would oppose Warsaw Pact expansion.

See where I’m going with this? Everyone is picking sides instead of analyzing the situation to find a solution that will work.

Russia’s aim is the same as it was before.

Let’s take it for what it is.

Current State

Now, is Russia achieving its aim right now? Let’s take a look:

• NATO gained two new members on Russia’s border, turning the Baltic Sea into the “Lake of NATO,” or whatever the internet calls it these days.

• Offensives are excruciatingly slow.

• Western aid to Ukraine—aside from air defence missiles—has not really slowed down.

• Ukraine is coming up with new technologies, methods, and innovative solutions to complex problems on the battlefield. Russia is too; it goes both ways. But from Russia’s perspective, the longer this goes on, the less likely it is that Russia can simply break Ukraine.

So if the aim stayed the same, but banging your head against the wall in Eastern Ukraine is not working, what do you do?

The right answer is: look for options.

Russia’s Options

• Attack Ukraine from another side. The problem is that Ukraine probably expects that possibility and might be prepared.

Read more

Canada awarded a major contract to strengthen military connectivity in the Arctic, while EarthDaily is testing an AI-enabled border-monitoring platform.

Indigenous industry participation is also gaining visibility in the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, and National Defence has opened a new challenge focused on detecting and breaching modern minefields.

OTTAWA AWARDS $768.6 MILLION CONTRACT FOR NEW SECURITY AND SCIENCE CAMPUS

The federal government awarded PCL Construction a $768.6 million construction contract for the Regulatory and Security Science Main project in Ottawa.

The six-facility campus will bring together work from the CFIA, CBSA, Health Canada, and the Public Health Agency of Canada, with laboratories and digital systems supporting border security, public and animal health, emergency preparedness, and food safety. Construction is expected to be completed in 2031.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

EARTHDAILY TO TEST AI-ENABLED SATELLITE MONITORING FOR CANADA’S BORDERS

EarthDaily has been selected by Defence Research and Development Canada to lead the Space-based Monitoring, Alerts and Tactical Awareness Knowledge (SMATAK) project.

Working with DRDC and the RCMP, the company will develop a demonstration platform combining daily satellite imagery, AI-based change detection, geospatial tools, and near-real-time alerts.

The multi-year project will assess how these technologies could improve monitoring across Canada’s large and remote border areas, with a final demonstration planned for 2027.

Read More: Earth Daily Release

INDIGENOUS PARTNERSHIPS GAIN NEW RELEVANCE IN CANADA’S SUBMARINE PROGRAM

TKMS’s selection as preferred supplier for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project has put its existing Indigenous partnerships back in focus.

Earlier this year, TKMS signed cooperation agreements with Songhees Development Corporation, Des Nedhe Group Defence, Glooscap Ventures, and the Inuit Development Corporation Association.

The framework covers industrial participation, workforce development, long-term sustainment, and Arctic-related opportunities — positioning Indigenous businesses to participate in the program from an early stage rather than after contract award.

Read More: Canadian Indigenous Investment Summit LinkedIn Release

DND OPENS $10 MILLION MINEFIELD BREACHING INNOVATION CHALLENGE

National Defence has launched a new IDEaS challenge seeking technologies that can improve how forces detect and breach complex minefields under combat conditions. The program has two streams — Detection and Reconnaissance and Breaching Solutions — with up to $10 million available and individual projects eligible for as much as $1 million. Selected technologies will have an opportunity to demonstrate their capabilities to DND in 2027; applications close October 14, 2026.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

Outside defence, Ottawa also backed a large-scale EV manufacturing project in Ontario, and National Defence used an Alberta visit to highlight the province’s role in research, testing, autonomous systems, and military infrastructure.

CANADA AWARDS $2.3 BILLION ARCTIC MILITARY COMMUNICATIONS CONTRACT

The Defence Investment Agency awarded Telesat an initial $2.3 billion contract under the Enhanced Satellite Communications Project – Polar. Using the Telesat Lightspeed low-Earth-orbit constellation, the project will give the Canadian Armed Forces secure, resilient communications across the Arctic and other high-latitude regions. The agreement also enables Telesat to add 69 satellites to its constellation, with the spacecraft to be manufactured by MDA Space in Montréal.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

EUROPEAN DEFENCE GROUP CSG INVESTS IN NORTH VECTOR DYNAMICS

Calgary-based North Vector Dynamics has secured a strategic investment from European defence group CSG, which will take a minority position in the Canadian missile developer.

The partnership gives NVD access to additional manufacturing expertise and international defence markets while keeping its engineering authority and intellectual property in Canada. NVD is developing the CM-70 low-cost counter-drone interceptor alongside a broader portfolio of strike and air-defence systems.

Read More: North Vector Dynamics Release

CANADA LAUNCHES ITS FIRST QUANTUM DEFENCE INNOVATION SECURE HUB

National Defence launched Canada’s first Quantum Defence Innovation Secure Hub in Calgary, backed by $20.3 million over two years for a University of Calgary-led consortium.

The hub will bring government, researchers, and industry together to move quantum technologies from research into military applications, with work focused on sensing, secure communications, navigation, algorithms, and hardware assurance.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

ALBERTA DEFENCE PUSH HIGHLIGHTS RESEARCH, DRONES, AND MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE

Minister David McGuinty’s two-day Alberta visit highlighted the province’s growing role in Canada’s defence ecosystem.

At DRDC Suffield, discussions focused on autonomous systems, counter-UAS technologies, advanced energetics, and chemical, biological, and radiological defence.

The visit also highlighted up to $415,000 for Landing Zones Canada to advance RPAS flight-control software and a $12.7 million energy modernization contract at CFB Wainwright.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

In the defence sector, GIT Coatings is preparing to expand production of marine coatings, and two Northern Ontario companies are scaling military pilot training and autonomous cyber-defence technology.

GIT COATINGS EXPANDS PRODUCTION FOR DEFENCE AND MARINE MARKETS

GIT Coatings will receive a $737,500 repayable federal contribution to expand production at its Dartmouth facility. The funding will support new mixing equipment for an icebreaking hull coating developed primarily for defence and security vessels, as well as specialized expertise to help the company enter more defence supply chains. The project is expected to create five jobs and increase Canadian manufacturing capacity in advanced marine coatings.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

BRITISH COLUMBIA SECURES $152 MILLION FOR 54 INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

More than $152 million will support 54 infrastructure and planning projects across British Columbia. The portfolio includes water and wastewater upgrades, a new fire hall, recreation facilities, and a first-of-its-kind Capital Regional District project that will convert wastewater biosolids into biochar. The funding is aimed at projects that are beyond the financial capacity of individual local governments.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

NORTHERN ONTARIO DEFENCE FIRMS RECEIVE $2.7 MILLION

FedNor is investing $2.7 million in two defence-related projects in North Bay. ITPS Canada will receive $1.5 million to relocate its tactical training centre and establish a dedicated facility for advanced fighter-pilot preparation, while SKADI Cyber Defense Corporation will receive $1.2 million to advance its Frostbow autonomous cyber-defence system. Together, the projects are expected to create approximately 60 jobs and expand the region’s role in aerospace training and cybersecurity.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

The launch of the Defence Drone Initiative added a direct procurement dimension, opening a faster route for Canadian uncrewed technologies to move from development into testing and potential production.

VOYAGEUR PLACES CANADA’S FIRST ORDER FOR AIRBUS U030 FLEXROTOR

Voyageur Aviation has signed the first Canadian purchase order for Airbus’s U030 Flexrotor uncrewed aerial system, becoming the platform’s Canadian launch customer. Built for intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance missions, the vertical-takeoff system offers more than 12 hours of endurance and can operate from a compact area on land or at sea.

The order follows an Airbus–Voyageur agreement signed at CANSEC and gives Voyageur a new deployable ISR capability suited to Canada’s northern and maritime operating conditions.

Read More: Airbus Release

OTTAWA SUPPORTS PRATT & WHITNEY CANADA MANUFACTURING UPGRADE

The federal government will provide up to $34 million toward Pratt & Whitney Canada’s $275 million modernization of its aircraft-engine manufacturing centre in Longueuil, Quebec.

The project will introduce advanced manufacturing capabilities, maintain approximately 650 jobs, and reinforce Canada’s position in the global propulsion market. Ottawa is also treating the investment as part of its wider effort to secure aerospace as a sovereign industrial capability.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANADA AND NUNAVUT FINALIZE MAJOR HOUSING AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGREEMENTS

Canada and Nunavut have finalized agreements covering housing, health care, education, and essential community infrastructure. Nunavut will receive $155.4 million through the Build Communities Strong Fund, while a separate housing partnership backed by up to $250 million in federal funding and $230 million from Nunavut is expected to deliver at least 750 new homes.

The measures also support water systems, transportation networks, health facilities, and other infrastructure needed to sustain housing growth across the territory.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANADA OPENS A FASTER PROCUREMENT ROUTE FOR DEFENCE DRONES

The federal government launched the Defence Drone Initiative to accelerate the development, operational testing, and production of Canadian uncrewed and autonomous systems. The initiative will connect the requirements of the Canadian Armed Forces and Canadian Coast Guard with domestic expertise in areas such as robotics, artificial intelligence, sensors, communications, and advanced manufacturing.

A new supplier arrangement is open until August 14, 2026, giving qualified companies access to future opportunities involving prototypes, testing, limited acquisitions, and potential production.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

Different sectors, same signal: more emphasis on building capability inside Canada, strengthening supply chains, and moving promising projects closer to operational use.

OTTAWA EXPANDS ARMOURED VEHICLE PRODUCTION WITH GDLS-CANADA

The federal government announced a new strategic partnership with General Dynamics Land Systems–Canada that includes nearly $2 billion over four years for 190 additional Armoured Combat Support Vehicles.

The order would expand the Canadian fleet from 360 to 550 vehicles, keep production in London, Ontario, and support a domestic supplier base that already stretches across more than 100 communities.

Read More: Prime Minister of Canada Release

CANADA LAUNCHES A NEW SECURE HUB FOR UNCREWED DEFENCE SYSTEMS

National Defence is putting $29.6 million over two years into a new Uncrewed Systems Defence Innovation Secure Hub, led by an Espace Aéro consortium and anchored in Mirabel through the National UxS Capability Acceleration Hub, or NEXUS.

The project is designed to speed up the development, testing, and transition of Canadian autonomous and counter-uncrewed technologies into operational use, with priority areas that include sensor integration, contested logistics, and human-machine teaming.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

NEO BATTERY SIGNS DRONE SUPPLY PARTNERSHIP WITH SOUTH KOREAN MANUFACTURER

NEO Battery Materials announced a joint development agreement with South Korean drone and aerospace company Assetta to develop and supply high-performance, non-Chinese battery products for current and future drone platforms.

The company is framing the deal as its first publicly disclosed drone customer relationship and a step toward deeper participation in Korean defence procurement and drone-related manufacturing.

Read More: PR Newswire Release

SONGHEES, ESQUIMALT, AND POMERLEAU LAUNCH G3V

Songhees Development Corporation, Esquimalt Nation, and Pomerleau launched Group of 3 Ventures Limited Partnership (G3V), a majority Indigenous-owned partnership created to pursue and deliver infrastructure projects in Greater Victoria and beyond.

The structure combines local leadership and community relationships with national construction capacity, and it is being positioned as a long-term vehicle for economic participation and project delivery in Lekwungen territory.

Read More: PR Newswire Release

In Quebec, the federal government signed a new agreement with the province to fund local infrastructure upgrades, with an early focus on cultural and community facilities. Together, the announcements point to the same practical objective: moving from policy intent to delivery.

CANADA MOVES THE PATROL SUBMARINE PROJECT INTO NEGOTIATIONS

Ottawa has named Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems as the preferred supplier for Canada’s next-generation submarine fleet and will now begin negotiations on the acquisition of up to 12 submarines.

The government also identified Hanwha Ocean as the reserve supplier, giving the process a qualified fallback if talks with TKMS do not lead to a final agreement.

The announcement is being framed not only as a capability decision for the Royal Canadian Navy, but also as a long-term industrial file tied to infrastructure, skilled jobs, and domestic supply-chain participation.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

OTTAWA AND QUEBEC LAUNCH A NEW $196 MILLION INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERSHIP

The federal government has reached an agreement with Quebec to deliver a $98 million Local Impact Stream envelope under the Build Communities Strong Fund, with Quebec matching the amount for a total investment of up to $196 million.

The funding will support local infrastructure projects across the province, with early projects already announced for Montréal’s Théâtre Denise-Pelletier, Trois-Rivières’ Musée POP, and Laval’s Bibliothèque Germaine-Guèvremont.

Ottawa also said the broader Quebec stream includes an additional $119 million over four years, including $21 million earmarked for Indigenous projects.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

Different sectors, but a consistent direction — stronger domestic capability, broader operational reach, and more investment in systems expected to matter over the long term.

CAF EXPANDS ARCTIC AWARENESS THROUGH OPERATION NANOOK-TAKUNIQ

National Defence announced that Operation NANOOK-TAKUNIQ will run across the summer, fall, and winter in key Arctic and northern locations, including Banks Island, Akpatok Island, and the coastlines of Hudson Bay and Labrador.

Led by the Canadian Rangers with Army support, the operation is focused on land-based awareness and surveillance in remote environments, while also aligning with broader NATO Arctic activity and Canada’s continental defence posture.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

NORTHERN ONTARIO OPENS ACCESS TO $39 MILLION IN LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING

FedNor said Northern Ontario will receive $39 million through the Local Impact stream of the Build Communities Strong Fund. The funding is intended to help communities, municipalities, and Indigenous organizations build, repair, and upgrade local infrastructure, with an emphasis on projects that reflect community needs, support jobs, and strengthen regional growth.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANADA AWARDS $688 MILLION RADARSAT REPLENISHMENT CONTRACT

The Canadian Space Agency awarded MDA Space a $688 million contract to build, test, and launch a replenishment satellite for the RADARSAT Constellation Mission. Ottawa is presenting the project as both a sovereignty measure and an industrial one, with the satellite expected to support Arctic monitoring, maritime safety, flood tracking, environmental observation, and broader intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance needs.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

DOMINION DYNAMICS RAISES RECORD CANADIAN DEFENCE SERIES A

Dominion Dynamics announced a $139 million CAD Series A round led by Georgian, which it described as the largest Series A financing in Canadian defence history. The company said the capital will be used to scale its Arctic surveillance network, AuraNet software platform, and drone-related systems, while expanding operations in Kanata and Toronto and growing its team past 100 employees this year.

Read More: PR Newswire Release

ORQA AND REMOTE ROBOTIC SYSTEMS LAUNCH $150 MILLION DRONE AND COUNTER-UAS PARTNERSHIP

Orqa and Remote Robotic Systems announced an exclusive partnership aimed at expanding production of Orqa systems and components in Canada for domestic and export markets. The companies said the five-year deal is valued at an estimated $150 million CAD, starts with a $20 million CAD investment in expanded production capacity, targets up to 100 new high-value jobs, and focuses on uncrewed systems, AI integration, and counter-drone capabilities.

Read More: PR Newswire Release

FEDERAL FUNDING TARGETS MARITIME SECURITY IN THE GREAT LAKES

Public Safety Canada announced a new investment to strengthen maritime security in the Great Lakes, with funding directed to the Great Lakes Ports Association. The initiative is intended to improve co-ordination, resilience, and security planning across a region that is economically critical and increasingly exposed to cross-border and infrastructure risks.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANADA AND BRITAIN REPORTEDLY EXPAND DRONE WARFARE TRAINING IN ALBERTA

A Canadian Defence Review report says Canadian and British troops are preparing for a new phase of training at British Army Training Unit Suffield focused on drones, electronic warfare, and force-on-force scenarios shaped by lessons from Ukraine.

Read More: Canadian Defence Review Release

On one side are long-horizon investments in research space and municipal infrastructure; on the other, program work tied to Arctic domain awareness and the data-sharing systems that sit behind modern air operations. Different files, but the same underlying logic — build the capacity now, so the system is stronger later.

MONTREAL SCIENCE COMPLEX PHASE II SECURES MAJOR PUBLIC FUNDING

Canada and Quebec announced more than $200 million for Phase II of the Université de Montréal Science Complex, allowing the university to move ahead with two new buildings next to the existing complex.

The expansion is meant to bring natural sciences, data science, and the Courtois Institute into one location and strengthen Quebec’s position in advanced materials, computing, and artificial intelligence research.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

49NORTH WINS NEW RPAS WORK FOR CANADA’S GUARDIAN PROGRAM

49North said it has been awarded a $3.7 million CAD contract by General Atomics to design, build, integrate, and test a Coalition Shared Database for Canada’s Remotely Piloted Aircraft System program. The work is aimed at secure, NATO-standard sharing of ISR data with allied partners and expands 49North’s role inside Canada’s Guardian program, where it is already contributing to other mission-critical systems.

Read More: PR Newswire Release

CANADA MOVES ARCTIC OVER-THE-HORIZON RADAR INTO DELIVERY PHASE

Canada has formally entered into arrangements with Australia and BAE Systems Australia to acquire Over-the-Horizon Radar capability for the Arctic, marking the project’s shift into delivery. Ottawa says the system will improve long-range detection of airborne and maritime threats in the North, support NORAD modernization, and generate domestic industrial benefits as Canadian firms take part in building and sustaining the capability over time.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

Some of these developments are local and programmatic, others are strategic, but together they show where Canada is putting attention: into the assets, partnerships, and operating frameworks that support resilience, security, and future growth.

OTTAWA OPENS CONSULTATIONS ON BILLY BISHOP’S FUTURE

The federal government launched public consultations on the future of Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport, with input open until July 24, 2026. Transport Canada said the process will gather views on issues including transportation, economics, the environment, noise, housing, and quality of life before any decision is made on the airport’s next phase.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

ATLANTIC CANADA OPENS ACCESS TO $76 MILLION IN COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING

ACOA announced that nearly $76 million is now available through the Build Communities Strong Fund’s Local Impact stream for Atlantic communities, municipalities, Indigenous organizations, and other eligible groups.

The program is intended to support practical local projects — from repairs and upgrades to new community infrastructure — that strengthen regional development and everyday public use.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

IMT AND PABLO AIR EXPLORE A DRONE PARTNERSHIP

IMT and South Korea’s PABLO AIR signed a letter of intent at CANSEC to explore a potential partnership focused on advanced autonomous drone capabilities. The companies said the discussions will cover unmanned aerial vehicles, swarm technologies, systems integration, manufacturing, and munitions integration for defence and security applications, though the LOI is not a binding commercial agreement.

Read More: PR Newswire Release

VALCARTIER OPENS A NEW DEFENCE RESEARCH COMPLEX

National Defence opened the new pavilion complex at the DRDC Valcartier Research Centre, marking the completion of a $166 million modernization project. The 30,900-square-metre facility includes more than 80 multidisciplinary laboratories and is intended to strengthen collaboration and expand Canada’s defence research capacity in areas such as information systems, optronics, and combat systems science.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

FEDDEV ONTARIO OPENS NEW LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE STREAM

FedDev Ontario is now accepting applications under the Build Communities Strong Fund Local Impact Stream, with $330 million over four years available in southern Ontario. The funding is aimed at community infrastructure that supports regional economic development, including projects such as community buildings, recreation facilities, parks, trails, and cultural spaces.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANADA INVESTS IN THE NEXT GENERATION OF SOVEREIGN EARTH OBSERVATION

The Canadian Space Agency awarded three contracts worth $2.4 million in total to Calian, Kepler, and MDA Space to develop concepts for the ground systems that will control Canada’s next generation of Earth observation satellites and manage their data. CSA framed the investment as part of a broader effort to reinforce space as a sovereign capability tied to national security, resilience, and Canada’s future Earth observation architecture.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

The announcements included a new long-range missile acquisition, a preferred supplier decision for airborne surveillance, targeted housing and infrastructure measures in Quebec and Ontario, and partnership-driven industrial proposals tied to shipbuilding, autonomy, and Canadian manufacturing.

Together, they reflect a broader push to build capability at home while moving key files forward more quickly.

DAVIE AND KRAKEN MOVE TO BUILD AUTONOMOUS MARITIME SYSTEMS IN CANADA

Québec-based Davie and UK-based Kraken Technology Group (Kraken) announced a strategic collaboration to establish Canadian production, integration, and development of autonomous vessels and maritime systems.

Davie would provide the shipbuilding capacity and industrial base, while Kraken would bring its uncrewed surface-vessel and autonomy technologies, positioning the partnership around maritime security, industrial sovereignty, and faster delivery of next-generation capabilities.

Read More: Davie Release

CANADA MOVES AHEAD WITH A LONG-RANGE MISSILE CAPABILITY

Canada confirmed it finalized a government-to-government agreement with the United States in January for 26 HIMARS launchers, an initial stock of munitions, spare parts, training, and support, with deliveries expected to begin in 2029.

The project is estimated at $2.6 billion CAD, and the system will give the Canadian Army the ability to engage targets at ranges of more than 300 kilometres, while also supporting future anti-ship capability for coastal defence, including in the Arctic.
Source: National Defence release.

Read More: Canada Defence Review Release

OTTAWA CHANNELS $1 BILLION IN LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING THROUGH REGIONAL AGENCIES

The federal government announced that $1 billion from the Build Communities Strong Fund will be delivered through Canada’s Regional Development Agencies under a new Local Impact Stream.

The funding is meant to support smaller community infrastructure projects — from recreation and cultural spaces to innovation hubs and building retrofits — with an emphasis on projects that can move quickly and generate visible local economic benefits

Read More: Canada Defence Review Release

SOUTH KOREAN PROPOSAL EXPANDS ITS CANADIAN INDUSTRIAL PITCH

Hanwha expanded its Canadian proposal by bringing Algoma Steel into its partnership with the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association. The move strengthens the company’s “build in Canada” message by tying its proposal to Canadian steel, Canadian manufacturing, and a wider domestic supply chain.

More importantly, it shows that the South Korean bid is being presented not just as a defence sale, but as a broader industrial package with long-term economic value for Canada.

Read More: Hanwha Release

Around CANSEC, companies used the moment to introduce platforms, partnerships, and capabilities tied to ISR, mobility, autonomy, and Canadian manufacturing.

CANADA OPENS AIRBORNE EARLY WARNING TALKS WITH SAAB

The Defence Investment Agency announced that Canada is entering discussions with Saab as the preferred supplier for its Airborne Early Warning and Control capability. The project is intended to give the Royal Canadian Air Force longer-range airborne surveillance, command, and coordination capacity — especially in the Arctic — while Saab’s proposed GlobalEye solution is being framed as a fit with Canada’s BUILD–PARTNER–BUY approach because it uses the Canadian-built Bombardier Global 6500 platform. Engagement does not yet amount to a contract award.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANSEC VISIT HIGHLIGHTS OTTAWA’S PUSH ON DELIVERY, INDUSTRY, AND SKILLS

During CANSEC, Minister Joël Lightbound used the event to underline a shift in emphasis from defence spending announcements to execution. The message was direct: faster procurement, stronger domestic industrial capacity, and better positioning for Canadian firms and workers within major defence programs, including shipbuilding and future capability delivery.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

VOYAGEUR AND 49NORTH TEAM UP ON ISR SOLUTIONS

Voyageur Aviation and 49North signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to pursue integrated intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance solutions for Canadian government and defence customers. The collaboration would combine Voyageur’s special-mission aviation, maintenance, and training capabilities with 49North’s sovereign C4ISR, mission-systems, and data-analytics expertise across crewed and uncrewed platforms.

Read More: PR Newswire Release

CONVERGENCE LAUNCHES AN ALL-CANADIAN MIL-V PLATFORM

Convergence Design Services introduced the MIL-V as a fully Canadian-owned, Canadian-built electrically powered military vehicle platform. The company says the vehicle was developed with thirteen Canadian companies, with domestic IP and supply chain control positioned as part of the product’s value rather than a side note.

Read More: Canada Defence Review Release

AEROVISION MAKES A FORMAL PUSH INTO THE DEFENCE MARKET

At CANSEC, AeroVision Canada formally expanded into the defence sector with the ANAVIA HT-100, a heavy-lift unmanned helicopter platform aimed at military ISR, logistics, Arctic sovereignty, maritime surveillance, and expeditionary use cases. According to the CANSEC coverage, the platform is being positioned around endurance, payload, and long-range utility for Canadian defence operations.

Read More: Canada Defence Review Release

EDEY FX BROADENS ITS TACTICAL MOBILITY OFFERING

EDEY FX showcased multiple variants of its Light Tactical Trailer platform at CANSEC, with the system aimed at highly mobile cargo support for light infantry vehicles in difficult terrain. New for 2026 is SECURIS C-UAS, a rapidly deployable counter-drone trailer built with Allen-Vanguard, Metis, Blighter, and OpenWorks, extending the platform from tactical mobility into integrated counter-UAS capability.

Read More: Canada Defence Review Release

CANADA AND UKRAINE SIGN DRONE PRODUCTION ARRANGEMENT

Canada and Ukraine signed an arrangement at CANSEC to support the production of Ukrainian uncrewed aerial systems in Canada. The agreement establishes the Airlogix-Sentinel partnership between Ukrainian defence-tech company Airlogix and Canadian manufacturer Sentinel Research and Development, with the stated goal of producing drone systems in Canada for the Armed Forces of Ukraine while also strengthening Canada’s own defence industrial capacity.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

The announcements differ in sector, but not in direction. Each reflects a practical effort to strengthen the physical systems, operational tools, and industrial base that Canada is relying on for long-term resilience, readiness, and growth.

CANADA PUTS NEW MONEY BEHIND ARCTIC INFRASTRUCTURE AND CRITICAL MINERALS

Natural Resources Canada announced more than $55 million for two projects in Nunavut: up to $50 million for planning and preconstruction work on the Grays Bay Road and Port project, and $5 million for Glacies Technologies to pilot a lower-emissions alternative to diesel at a northern mine.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANADA AND YUKON SIGN MAJOR HOUSING AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGREEMENTS

Canada and Yukon announced two agreements worth approximately $350 million combined: nearly $157 million for infrastructure through the Build Communities Strong Fund, and up to $100 million in federal support alongside up to $93 million from Yukon Housing Corporation to accelerate up to 500 shovel-ready homes. The package is designed to pair housing delivery with the infrastructure needed to support it, including water, wastewater, health, and education assets.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CONSTRUCTION BEGINS ON THE BORDEN TRANSITION CENTRE

National Defence announced the start of construction on a new Transition Centre at CFB Borden, a project valued at about $37 million. The facility will cover more than 1,200 square metres, support approximately 41 personnel, and is expected to reach full operational capability by June 2028, with similar centres planned next for Edmonton and Shilo.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANADIAN ARMY LAUNCHES FIRST MINERVA INNOVATION CHALLENGE

The Canadian Army, with support from the IDEaS program, launched the first innovation challenge under the MINERVA Initiative: “True north precision: Low-cost drones with laser ranging.” The challenge is aimed at affordable uncrewed aerial systems that can support range finding, target cueing, impact adjustment, and battlefield awareness, with up to $2.1 million available for development funding.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANADA COMMITS $816 MILLION TO MARITIME SECURITY AND ARCTIC MONITORING

The Canadian Coast Guard announced a foundational $816 million over seven years to strengthen maritime security and expand federal visibility in Canadian waters. The investment includes a year-round Maritime Domain Awareness Hub in Iqaluit, reconnaissance upgrades for helicopters, four new Arctic long-range radar sites, and new aerial, surface, and subsurface drones to extend Coast Guard reach across northern waters.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

OTTAWA BACKS CONNECTIVITY AND TRANSIT PROJECTS ACROSS RURAL AND NORTHERN MANITOBA

More than $63 million in federal funding is being directed to nine projects across rural and northern Manitoba. Most of the funding will support high-speed internet projects that are expected to connect 2,309 households in 11 rural and remote communities, including more than 2,100 Indigenous households, while other projects focus on transit and local infrastructure.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

MDS COATING SECURES MAJOR FEDERAL SUPPORT FOR DUAL-USE AEROSPACE TECHNOLOGY

Minister Joly announced a $55.7 million federal investment in MDS Coating Technologies’ $212.9 million project to develop and commercialize protective coating technology for aerospace engines. Ottawa is framing the project as both an industrial growth play and a sovereign-capability investment, with expected gains in manufacturing capacity, sustainable aviation technology, and Canada’s position in the global aerospace engine supply chain.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

ALBERTA RECEIVES NEW FEDERAL SUPPORT FOR DEFENCE INNOVATION AND MANUFACTURING

PrairiesCan announced more than $9.3 million through the Regional Defence Investment Initiative to support six Alberta SMEs developing Canadian-made defence technologies and dual-use innovations. The funding is aimed at bringing new products to market, reinforcing domestic manufacturing, and strengthening Canada’s defence and security supply chain.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANADA EXTENDS CC-130J SUPPORT AND UPGRADE WORK

The Defence Investment Agency announced two amendments to Lockheed Martin’s existing CC-130J Hercules contract. One, worth $462.5 million USD, extends in-service support to June 2029; the other, estimated at $684.3 million USD, funds fleet-wide RCAF 105 upgrades, with ongoing work expected to support Canadian jobs and maintain critical airlift capability.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

The announcements range from major proposed investment in small craft harbours and new support for youth facing homelessness to an Arctic undersea surveillance initiative and a new autonomous UAV-tracking system. While the sectors differ, the direction is consistent: targeted investment in the systems, facilities, and technologies that support operational strength and future growth.

OTTAWA PROPOSES RECORD SMALL CRAFT HARBOUR INVESTMENT

The federal government proposed $957.8 million over five years for the Small Craft Harbours Program, on top of Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s existing annual budget of about $90 million. The funding is meant to support repairs, improvements, and dredging across the country, with Grande-Entrée Harbour in Les Îles de la Madeleine already identified as a recipient.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

TKMS AND GDMS-CANADA LAUNCH ARCTIC SENTINEL R&D PUSH

TKMS and General Dynamics Mission Systems–Canada agreed to establish Arctic Sentinel, an undersea research and development centre focused on underwater surveillance technologies designed for Arctic conditions. The initiative is tied to the Canadian Defence & Dual-Use Innovation Ecosystem and positioned as part of TKMS’s broader case for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, with both firms pointing to sovereign capability, faster prototyping, and domestic value creation.

Read More: GDMS-Canada Release

OTTAWA MOVES TO EXPAND DEFENCE PROCUREMENT POWERS UNDER NEW INVESTMENT AGENCY

Ottawa is preparing legislation that would give the new Defence Investment Agency more power to bypass standard procurement rules when national, defence, or economic security is involved. The changes would expand procurement exceptions, centralize authority, and make it easier to move faster on defence equipment, infrastructure, and innovation.

Read More: CBC Release

Alongside those government signals, Hanwha and its partners continued building a broader industrial case around Canada’s submarine competition, linking defence procurement to domestic manufacturing and supply-chain promises.

GOVERNMENT OF CANADA COMMITS TO NEW STRATEGY FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY

Natural Resources Canada announced it is developing a new Nuclear Energy Strategy for Canada, targeted for release by the end of 2026. The government is positioning nuclear as part of energy sovereignty, industrial growth, and export opportunity, while pointing to Canada’s CANDU legacy, uranium resources, workforce, and regulatory strength.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANADIAN COAST GUARD LAUNCHES ITS FIRST OF TWO ARCTIC AND OFFSHORE PATROL SHIPS, CCGS DONJEK

The Canadian Coast Guard launched CCGS Donjek, the first of two Arctic and Offshore Patrol Ships being built at Irving Shipbuilding under the National Shipbuilding Strategy. The vessel is intended to expand patrol and icebreaking capacity and support fisheries patrols, search and rescue, Arctic operations, and humanitarian missions.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

AUTOMOTIVE PARTS MANUFACTURERS’ ASSOCIATION AND HANWHA ANNOUNCE LANDMARK CANADA-SOUTH KOREA JOINT VENTURE

Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Ocean, and Canada’s Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association announced an MoU to pursue a Canadian joint venture for non-commercial industrial and military vehicles, contingent on Hanwha Ocean winning the submarine competition. The move is strategically obvious: Hanwha is tying its submarine bid to a wider industrial package that promises domestic manufacturing, local jobs, and cross-sector production capability.

Read More: Candian Army Today Release

GOVERNMENT OF CANADA RELEASES 2026 SPRING ECONOMIC

Finance Canada released the 2026 Spring Economic Update, Canada Strong For All, framing it around trade diversification, domestic investment, responsible fiscal management, affordability pressure, and stronger economic independence.

Read More: Government of Canada Release

CANADA BACKS PROGRESS ON NEW DEFENCE, SECURITY AND RESILIENCE BANK

Canada announced progress toward establishing the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank after multilateral charter negotiations concluded in Montréal. The proposed institution is intended to provide long-term, low-cost financing for defence, security, and resilience initiatives across allied supply chains, while helping governments and SMEs address critical funding gaps.

Participating countries also backed Montréal as the future headquarters, positioning Canada at the centre of a new multilateral platform for defence-related investment.

Read More: Government of Canada Release